ESFI World

As IEM 6 Global Challenge Kiev approaches, ESFI World's Derek Staley and Reece Flexner put their heads together on several topics related to the event.  They will discuss pressing issues, the four groups, and make their predictions.

Reece Flexner

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Derek Staley

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9 out of 16 players are Protoss. Does this indicate any shift in balance or just an anomaly?

Derek: I don’t really make much of it.  It’s cool to see players like Feast and Pomi at an event this large, but they’re probably not threats to win.  Really, I don’t make much of race balance in most international events at this point especially with how many players were in and out of the roster for Kiev.  When I see something change in GSL we can start proclaiming the golden age of Protoss.

Reece: I agree. Code S started out this week with Protoss set to lose about half of their players. So while that is far better than losing all but one, like in October, we definitely need to wait to see if the race’s luck really has changed. Besides, of the nine, three were invited, and the rest came from the absolutely massive European qualifying tournament where the top six players got in..

Derek: True.  All that said, I don’t think Protoss is in nearly as bad of a spot as they were at points last year.  Somewhat recent balance changes and metagame shifts have definitely helped.  I don’t think it’s too outlandish to think that we could have a Toss champion just by playing the numbers game and the fact that a player as strong as HerO is in the field

Reece: HerO is a hero, TitaN can slay titans, and Grubby... is pretty good at StarCraft? There is a lot of Protoss talent at this tournament, and it brings out the Cautiously Optimistic Zealot in me.

All 8 players from the SEA Qualifier dropped out due to conflicts or visa issues, replaced by TargA - a Norwegian with an Australian study visa.  Thoughts on a Norwegian replacing SEA?

Reece: It is a pretty bizarre situation that seems to have been brought on in a large part by monetary concerns. Since the talent pool in the SEA region is so shallow, the qualifier consisted of only eight players, all of which ended up deciding it was not worth the trip. It seems that TargA was sent mostly because he was already nearby in Norway and is studying abroad in Australia, so that was the most sensible choice financially. Still, IEM is one of the few events we have in which region and home country matter, so it is sad when an under-represented region loses a spot.

Derek: It’s certainly strange and honestly disappointing.  There’s a lot of players from the SEA scene that we don’t see very much from, and if you look at the list of players in the qualifier you’ll see names like yang and pokerface - players who don’t even have Liquipedia entries.  It’s definitely a missed opportunity to expose the talent in the SEA scene or have another fan favorite like mOOnGLaDe at the event.

Reece: I had thought that after the SEA server was region-linked we would see a surge of talent and notable players a few months later. That never really materialized, and as FXOBoSS has been saying, the whole region seems very untapped at the moment.  Especially after the whole PPSL fiasco showed the region in a bad light, it would have been great to see a SEA player do well at an IEM.

Derek: Hopefully we’ll see some more events in that region to bring more attention to these players, and ideally get them to more events like IEM.  Perhaps I missed it, but I’d love to hear what BoSS and some of the players have to say about these qualifiers in particular and other big events in regards to the SEA players

The Kiev roster has changed significantly, with qxc replacing dde, DieStar taking the Chinese spot, NightEnd and Strelok later replacing DieStar and Beastyqt, and just recently White-Ra replacing KiLLeR.  How does the dynamic of the event change with the subs?

Derek: I’m sure the fans are excited to see White-Ra and qxc, so that’ll be something to watch for.  It definitely changes some of the stories... I was really looking forward to watching both DieStar and Beastyqt play since they haven’t been to that many big live events as of yet.   We don’t really know what kind of condition qxc is in with him still finishing up school and haven’t seen a ton from the other players recently either, so it should be interesting.

Reece: It is weird. As you say, qxc has been pretty quiet lately, and it would be very disappointing if he ends up just 0-3’ing out of his group, especially since we do not often get to see players like DieStar in action. Similarly, as much as I love White-Ra, he washed out of the Euro qualifiers with a 1-2 record in matches, so it seems an odd choice from a competitive standpoint. I wish they would be a bit more open about how they choose replacement, and have many contingencies in place so the process is clear cut.

White-Ra (Photo: Zhang Jingna)

Derek: Guidelines on how replacements are picked would be nice, but that certainly isn’t something unique to IEM.  It’s probably difficult when a player drops out as late as KiLLeR since you have to find somebody on a pretty short notice.  The most disappointing thing to me about all these replacements, though, is the lack of a Chinese player.  We’re going to see more of them in Korea soon, but I would love to see these guys start showing up at more International events so we can see more of their playstyle and how they match up with some of the western talent.

Reece: Exactly. Solid Chinese players are creeping their way into the Korean scene. Especially with the Invictus deal and the MarsTV broadcasting deal, there is a good chance that we will be seeing much larger Chinese presence in the scene a year from now. The sooner that starts the better, since adding 1,000,000,000 people to the market can only do good things for everyone involved.

There are some players we haven't seen at too many big live events yet including TargA, Pomi, Feast, and TitaN.  Thoughts on those players?

Reece: One of the things I am most looking forward to is seeing how the stars of Europe I always hear about stack up against proven top players, especially the Koreans. TitaN surprised most North Americans with his performance at WCG, winning his group, which included IdrA, and even beating SuperNoVa to reach the semifinals. Hopefully there will be a similar success story this weekend.

Derek: Definitely.  As I said I was disappointed that we wouldn’t be seeing Beastyqt or DieStar, but there are still some very intriguing storylines here.  TitaN needs to show that he can follow up his WCG performance and the others will be looking for a breakout performance of their own.  A big performance could gain these guys a lot of fans this weekend.

Reece: One concern is that the timing of the tournament may prevent many American fans from watching it. IEM is already the least watched of the major tournaments here in the US, and a 5am wake up call for the west coasters may be too much to ask. That, and IEM’s nearly unnavigable site might mean that even a stellar performance by one of these players would go unnoticed.

Derek: Hopefully we’ll see some more events in that region to bring more attention to these players, and ideally get them to more events like IEM.  Perhaps I missed it, but I’d love to hear what BoSS and some of the players have to say about these qualifiers in particular and other big events in regards to the SEA players

Group A

Derek: Naniwa has to be the odds on favorite here.  One of the best international players there is and he avoids the Koreans, drawing a last minute invite in White-Ra, Strelok, and TitaN.  Strelok will only have to practice one matchup for the group stage, so he should be positioned pretty well to advance even if he drops his series against Nani.

Johan 'Naniwa' Lucchesi

	Name	Johan Lucchesi
	Handle	Naniwa
	Age	22
	Country	Sweden
	Team	Quantic Gaming
	Race	Protoss

Reece: Hard to argue with Naniwa as the favorite, but Strelock has been under performing a bit in big tournaments lately. He got demolished at WCG and 0-3’d straight out of the NASL finals, although his opponent was the more-than-competent IdrA. I am more feeling that White-Ra will be able to pull one of his out-of-the-blue deep runs in his home country

Derek: White-Ra certainly could perform well here, especially with 3 Protoss in the group, but it’s hard to say how much he’s been practicing in the last few weeks.  That isn’t to say he hasn’t been playing, just that it’s an unknown factor.  He was added extremely late after KiLLeR dropped out... while most other players have been spending time preparing for IEM and their opponents, White-Ra didn’t even know he was playing until just before arriving in Kiev

Reece: True, but White-Ra has always been a player who relies on scrappiness and creativity rather than crisp mechanics. Never discount special tactics

Group B

Reece: I think this will be the most competitive group in terms of all the players having fairly equal shots at advancing. The one weak link might be Nightend, who got some tough breaks at the Homestory Cup and ShoutCraft Invitational. But both of those tournaments are so odd I’m not sure how much we can predict from them. It is hard to ever vote against a Korean, so I will put him down as winning it. Then I want to see Grubby come out with a “How you like me now?” performance as his fan base is obviously very motivated to support him at the moment.

Derek: Zenio was knocked out of his Code S group, but he isn’t exactly facing off against MMA and GuMiho here.  I don’t expect him to have too much trouble winning this or at very least advancing.  I’ll agree that Nightend is a bit of a question mark, but Grubby has been consistently improving and Kas is very strong. 

Reece: Looking at Zenio’s TLPD entry, I am starting to agree with you. While my heart says Grubby, a 14-2 ZvP record in international events says Zenio. One factor to consider is how his move to Liquid might have changed his practicing habit and partners. Considering the TL-oGs partnership, probably not much. On the other hand, he does not have MC to practice against anymore.

Derek: As much as I’m a Grubby fanboy, I’d actually have to say Kas will be the other player advancing here.  He looked rather amazing toward the end of 2011, particularly in December, and took out several top level players in tournament play.  Kas is somebody that we really need to see more of at international live events (get this man to the US), and I think we’ll see a strong performance from him in Kiev.

Group C

Derek: MMA losing even a single game in this group would surprise me.  He’s simply one of the best players in the world at the moment.  The second spot is far more interesting... Hasu took a series off of HuK at NASL, though PvP can be prone to upsets so it’s hard to say how much weight to put on that performance.  I haven’t seen too many games from either Pomi or TargA (yes, I’m an ignorant American) outside of TargA qualifying for NASL Season 3 in the semi-open, so I’ll be interested to see how this plays out.

MMA (Photo: Zhang Jingna)

Reece: MMA will eat this group alive, and I agree that HasuObs has to be given a ton of credit for his comeback against HuK at the NASL finals. However, groups with every race represented can sometimes end up a bit wonky. If any group is ripe for a set of tie-breakers for second place, it is this one. 

Derek: That’s certainly possible, but without seeing much of Pomi play I don’t know if I can make a really accurate prediction there.  There isn’t anything Hasu or TargA have done to make me think they have a lock on second, so this is a bit of a toss up.  If I have to pick, I guess I’ll take TargA because of his NASL qualifier and as a hopeful pick since I want to see some “new” talent breakthrough this year.

Reece: I have to stick with HasuObs, just because, looking in their recent TLPD matches, there just are not that many good players the other two have beaten. HasuObs is also the only one of the three to have a >50% win percentage in all three match-up. So I’m going to stick to the numbers and go with the German.

Group D

Reece: HerO has been in something of a slump ever since losing the NASL finals to PuMa; otherwise he would be the clear favorite. His performance at the Blizzard Cup was one of the most painful things to watch in recent months, and he fell short in the Up-And-Down matches as well. Nonetheless, I still think he is the cautious favorite for this group, with Dimaga a perhaps uncomfortably close second.

Derek: While HerO has been slumping a bit, I still like his chances here.  If there’s something we’ve seen, it’s that even struggling Korean players tend to make most international players look bad.  Dimaga had a pretty successful Homestory Cup, taking out Protoss players Attero, Adelscott, and Grubby.  But ReaL, whom I don’t think is on HerO’s level at this point, 2-0’d Dimaga in groups.  I expect HerO to do the same.

HerO (Photo: Zhang Jingna)

Reece: Dimaga beating NesTea in the GSL World Champs tournament, and then almost being burned alive afterward, is still one of my favorite memories in all of StarCraft 2. On his home turf, coming off such a solid performance at HomeStory, I think he is a lock to move on, and, just to be contrary, I will even change by vote and put him at #1 in the group after winning a 6-1, 6-2 tiebreaker over HerO. 

Derek: If qxc was playing full time right now, I might have an argument for you.  As it stands, I don’t.  As much as I believe in qxc as a player I just can’t see him (or Feast) advancing against Dimaga or HerO.  I still think HerO will win the group, but I can’t argue against he and Dimaga advancing. 

Derek: If there’s a StarCraft II tournament anywhere in the world right now, I’m probably going to pick MMA no matter who his opponents are.  That said, his group sets up nicely and he should advance into the bracket rather easily.  Zenio could take him out, and somebody can always turn into a giant killer for a day, but the smart money is on MMA.

Reece: There really is not much more to say than that. MMA is a beast, and he will likely beast his way through this tournament. To make things more interesting, let’s go for place and show. I think Naniwa and Hero are both on the short list of players that could be taking on MMA in the finals.

Derek: If we want to look for an underdog pick, how about Kas?  He rolled through the Twitch EU championship, took out Polt and Nerchio to win the Gigabyte Cup S2, beat Polt yet again in the TteSports Christmas Cup, and went through both HuK and MarineKing at WCG.  Needless to say, that’s a pretty impressive set of wins in tournaments - and all in December.

Reece: Kas is always dangerous, but for whatever reason his is not the name that comes to mind when I think of an IEM Champion. For whatever reason, IEM never seems to be his tournament. Maybe things will change in his home country, but I have to say that one of the many talent Protoss players will end up in the final with MMA.

Source: GoodGame.Ru (Photo)